With the fall box office in dire straits, Hollywood is pinning its hopes on a toothy, otherworldly hunter to save the day. Can 'Predator: Badlands' claw its way to a $60 million global opening and breathe life into a struggling season?
20th Century Studios' latest installment in the iconic franchise is aiming high, with projections pointing to a strong start, including over $25 million from North America alone. This comes at a crucial time, as Disney's recent sci-fi venture, Tron: Ares, fizzled out with a disappointing $134.3 million worldwide against a hefty $220 million budget. But here's where it gets interesting: Predator: Badlands is banking on a broader audience, thanks to its PG-13 rating, a departure from the usual R-rated entries in the series. This shift could lure younger viewers, particularly those under 25, beyond its traditional older male fanbase.
What sets Badlands apart? For starters, director Dan Trachtenberg, who revitalized the franchise with the Hulu hit Prey, is at the helm. Prey became Hulu's biggest premiere ever in August 2022, proving Trachtenberg's knack for breathing new life into this long-running series. Unlike most Predator films, which focus on humans as the hunted, Badlands flips the script, turning the alien hunter into the prey. Early reviews are glowing, with an 88% fresh rating following its Hollywood premiere.
Advance ticket sales in the U.S. are promising, rivaling those of Ballerina and The Accountant 2, though trailing behind Tron: Ares. However, buzz for Badlands seems stronger than its sci-fi predecessor. The film will debut in 3,700 theaters across the U.S. and Canada, including premium formats like IMAX.
The Predator franchise has a leg up on Tron in terms of consistency, with eight films since the 1987 Arnold Schwarzenegger classic, compared to just three Tron movies since 1982. Yet, there's a ceiling to domestic openings for Predator films. The 2004 crossover Alien vs. Predator holds the record with a $38.2 million debut, while 2010's Predators boasts the highest standalone opening at $24.7 million.
Predator: Badlands kicks off with premium fan previews on Wednesday, followed by Thursday previews starting at 2 p.m. The film launches internationally this weekend, starting Wednesday in key markets like France, Korea, the Netherlands, and Indonesia. Thursday expands to Australia, Brazil, Germany, Italy, and Mexico, with China, India, Japan, Spain, and the UK joining on Friday. Overseas, the film is expected to rake in $35-$38 million.
For context, 2018's The Predator opened to $49 million in comparable foreign markets, though that figure included a significant $19 million from China—a number Badlands isn't expected to match. The previous film's strongest markets outside China included Mexico, the UK, Japan, Australia, Brazil, and major European countries, ultimately grossing $146 million globally, with $95 million from international audiences.
To drum up excitement, stars Elle Fanning, Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi, and director Trachtenberg hit the promotional circuit, attending a red-carpet screening at London's BFI IMAX Waterloo, an MCM Comic-Con panel, and a chat at SDCC Malaga in September.
While Predator: Badlands aims for blockbuster status, several upscale adult films are also hitting North American theaters, each expected to debut in the low single-digit millions. These include Black Bear's Christy, starring Sydney Sweeney (2,000 theaters, 66% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), Sony Pictures Classics' Nuremberg (1,700 theaters, 68% fresh), Amazon MGM Studios' Sarah’s Oil, and Mubi's Die My Love, featuring Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson (1,900 theaters, 79% fresh).
But here's the controversial part: Can a franchise known for its gritty, R-rated violence truly thrive with a PG-13 rating? And will younger audiences embrace a series rooted in '80s action nostalgia? Let us know your thoughts in the comments—do you think Predator: Badlands will roar to success, or is it a risky gamble?
